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(Think about people you know with strong political opinions: Can you imagine any of them changing their views based on a brief interaction with a In this case, though, La Cour and Green were fastidious — they checked in with both the folks the canvassers talked to and other people in their households a few days after the conversation, and then over and over in the intervening months, up to nine months later, so as to better track the lingering effects of a single interaction with a In the short term, the 20-minute conversations about gay marriage had a clear and large effect: Before the conversation, the residents had held beliefs on gay marriage in line with the average resident of Nebraska or Ohio; a few days after, their beliefs were in line with the average residents of Connecticut and Massachusetts (an increase of 0.48 points on a 5-point scale), and whether the canvasser was gay or straight didn’t have much impact on the size of the But it was the longer-term effect that was more surprising: While “90% of the initial treatment effect dissipated a month after the conversation with canvassers” among voters who spoke with a straight canvasser, among those who conversed with a gay canvasser, the size of the effect increased over time — “only gay canvassers’ effects persisted in 3-week, 6-week, and 9-month follow-ups.” By the end of the study, among voters who spoke with a gay canvasser, the gap between where they were and where they ended up on the issue of gay marriage was equivalent to the difference in opinion on the subject between the average resident of Georgia and the average resident of Now, these findings are complicated by the fact that a Supreme Court decision knocking down California’s ban on gay marriage occurred during the study — a decision that led to an across-the-board increase in support for gay marriage among study participants.
But while that boost quickly faded among those who spoke with a straight canvasser, support for gay marriage “strengthened markedly” after the decision among those who had spoken with a gay canvasser.